There is enough evidence to reject the narrative that once AI capabilities reach a certain threshold, there will be massive layoffs, even in fields with relatively few regulatory barriers, write Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor. "We can think of many kinds of knowledge work, including software development, as a 'decide-execute-deliver sandwich'/ AI compresses the 'execute' layer — the middle of the sandwich — but the other two layers resist automation in a way that will not be overcome by capability improvements alone."
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