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Re: [projectvrm] Blockchain is not only crappy technology but a bad vision for the future


Chronological Thread 
  • From: "=Drummond Reed" < >
  • To: Adrian Gropper < >
  • Cc: jim pasquale < >, Phillip Windley PHD < >, Paul Mundt < >, Doc Searls < >, John Philpin < >, ProjectVRM list < >
  • Subject: Re: [projectvrm] Blockchain is not only crappy technology but a bad vision for the future
  • Date: Sun, 15 Apr 2018 12:50:28 -0700
Adrian, agreed, air pollution is a better analogy.

On Sun, Apr 15, 2018 at 12:49 PM, Adrian Gropper < " target="_blank"> > wrote:
Adrian

On Sun, Apr 15, 2018 at 3:44 PM, =Drummond Reed < " target="_blank"> > wrote:
Jim, thanks for reposting this. We presented a variant of this chart at the DHS Federal Blockchain Workshop last fall and it really helps people understand that blockchains are ideal only in a very narrow set of conditions.

For those narrow set of conditions, however, I think Amara's Law applies:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

In other words, the affect on the Internet as a whole of a handful of public blockchains that use their unique properties of providing an all-but-completely-tamperproof immutable global ledger of transactions that everyone can rely on a source of truth is almost lost in today's hype about Bitcoin and Ethereum and cryptocurrencies. But establishing such decentralized infrastructure as global public utilities—such as we are doing with Sovrin as a global ledger of DIDs and public keys for self-sovereign identity—is going to have a profound effect on how we establish and maintain trust on the Internet.

And such infrastructure may be a turning point for the increasingly obvious ills of overcentralization. I love Brad Feld's short Medium post quoting Tristan Harris in a New York Magazine article called The Internet Apologizes:

"The price of free is actually too high."

It's possibly the entire industry of monetizing people's attention through adtech will one day be looked at as being as hazardous as smoking.









On Sun, Apr 15, 2018 at 5:10 AM, jim pasquale < " target="_blank"> > wrote:
Reposting a decision chart Phil posted on his blog several weeks ago from the Anil and the DHS





This isn’t a question of blockchain, though, but of architectures. For example, for Sovrin’s architecture. I’d answer your question as “sure”. We’ve architected the system so that no personally identifying information is ever stored on the ledger. Ledgers aren’t databases and shouldn’t be used as if they are. In Sovrin’s case, we use it as a directory for discovery and for the storage of information that should be public. 


I do personally find the idea of a public ledger that relies on present-day encryption as its only line of defense against prying eyes to be rather short-sighted and oddly optimistic. Whatever scheme is used today will ultimately be defeated, first by state actors, and then by the masses – even if we ignore leaps in quantum computing, year-on-year improvements in computational capacity and efficiency don’t stop simply because someone’s encryption mechanism has.

 

When I talk with companies about blockchain, the first question I always ask is if they would feel comfortable with whatever they were planning on putting out there to be readable by everyone tomorrow, and if not, then perhaps they should reconsider their strategy. There are certainly low-risk business cases where the value of the data has a short half-life and where its value to a competitor beyond that limited (e.g. supply chain management, shipping/logistics/package tracking) – these are the cases that I expect will ride out the hype cycle and find real application, though these are typically things that, while important, aren’t terribly exciting and are rather lacking in mass-market appeal.

 

For anything else, I expect something more like the open chains philosophy to become more prominent – small (and private) sidechains with their own verifying authority and the ability to link to others, allowing for mappings into multiple and completely different value chains, while retaining a measure of control and auditability.

 

Best regards,
-Paul.

 

 

Hmm..

 

It starts this way:

 

This piece by Kai Stinchcombe on why blockchain is a terrible idea is pretty dang quotable—he tackles the crazy idea that blockchain is a magical technology wand that you can wave around and solve the “trust problem” between groups of people. My favorite point is this one though:


A lawless and mistrustful world where self-interest is the only principle and paranoia is the only source of safety is a not a paradise but a crypto-medieval hellhole.

I’ve sat and talked with blockchain enthusiasts over dinner, I’ve shared their homes for an evening, I’ve looked them in the eye when they start their spiel about why this technology will save the world. 

 

I know a lot of blockchain people, and none of them are like that, or want to build a “world where self-interest is the only principle.” It’s a big category. Find some other people to talk to about it—ones that aren’t out to score a quick hit or save the world next week.

 

I remember when it seemed like PCs were all hype (roughly 1975-1982). Then the IBM PC came along, and the Mac, and here we are.

 

I also remember when the Internet seemed all hype (roughly mid-80s to mid-90s). Then graphical browsers and ISPs happened, and here we are.

 

I could go on, but you get my point.

 

It’s early. But the development is real. There’s fire making the smoke.

 

I’m not old enough to remember the discovery of fire, but I do know we’ve found a lot of uses for it.

 

Doc


 

"Blockchain is not only crappy technology but a bad vision for the future."

https://robinrendle.com/notes/blockchain-is-not-only-crappy-technology-but-a-bad-vision-for-the-future/

#Discuss

John
+1 (808) 344-2914


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