Re: [projectvrm] Is VRM an Ideologically-inspired Dead-end?

[Katherine Warman Kern < >]

Please see comments below.

Katherine Warman Kern
www.comradity.com
@comradity
203-918-2617

On Mar 19, 2013, at 1:53 AM, Joe Andrieu 
<
 >
 wrote:

> On Mon, Mar 18, 2013, at 10:28 PM, Don Marti wrote:
>> begin Joe Andrieu quotation of Sun, Mar 17, 2013 at 08:54:44PM -0700:
>>  
>>> But my real point was conditional: If it turned out to be true that
>>> people can't succeed with intentcasting, then it is necessarily
>>> true that vendors can't succeed with tracking.
>>  
> 
> That was actually Chris Savage's quote, as he deconstructed what I think
> was original Graham Hill's argument.
> 
> There's all sorts of reasons that (non-self-) tracking might do better
> than intentcasting. Privacy concerns are a good one, although we could,
> in theory, ameliorate many of those if we had robust vendor identity,
> for example so our intentions could be read only by those certified to
> be in that business, and if we had some reliable way to assure the
> information would only be used as intended...
> 
> But even larger than that is that pesky law of large numbers. Intent
> casting is higher fidelity in the micro, but until it hits the macro of
> at thousands of users in a given sector, there's very little trend data
> to figure out what's missing in any particular thread.

What if the consumers were interested in learning from other people with the 
same intent, and organically segment themselves into larger numbers?

>  Tracking happens
> everywhere to everyone. It's leverage of the law of large numbers is
> great, even as it's privacy violations are unacceptable.

What if there were a DMZ (De-Marketer-Zone) where you optin to share info "in 
context" to help meet other people like you. When you find or form a group 
you think represents your intent, optin again to have your data anonymously 
aggregated with the group you pick to share with Marketers?  This should be a 
win-win for everyone. Marketers never know who I am until I actually make a 
purchase.  And Marketers get more predictable data about a large group of 
people than they are now.
> 
> What's best about intentcasting versus tracking is that it shifts the
> analysis from an open ended question looking at every piece of data
> available to a specific inquiry with highly focused data. There will
> still be guesswork, but it will be hyperlocalized. Instead of companies
> like BlueKai and Audience Science monetizing the thrilling fact they
> they think you are pregnant and looking to buy a car, intent casting can
> make it explicit that you are in the market for a specific type of
> vehicle. The shopping experience isn't done, you may still change your
> mind, but as you close in on your particular ideal car, vendors
> can--theoretically--stay right along with you, giving more relevant
> options and learning more about your underlying needs. 
> 
> When lots of users start working with this kind of data, the *system*
> can start to predict "reliably good results" surprisingly well. It's
> like Amazon's "people who bought this also bought these other products".
> It's not supposed to be 100% advice for you to also buy those things,
> but it is often highly relevant information. Get intent casting to that
> level of penetration and things will start to get interesting.
> 
> Perhaps best of all, once you buy your car, they can stop trying to sell
> you one.  Talk about annoying waste.
> 
> -j
> 
> p.s.
> Yes, by "the system" I mean one or more vendors. As came up in the other
> thread, it's when you can aggregate demand that the power of analytics
> shows up in force.
> 
> On Mon, Mar 18, 2013, at 10:28 PM, Don Marti wrote:
>> begin Joe Andrieu quotation of Sun, Mar 17, 2013 at 08:54:44PM -0700:
>> 
>>> But my real point was conditional: If it turned out to be true that
>>> people can't succeed with intentcasting, then it is necessarily
>>> true that vendors can't succeed with tracking.
>> 
>> Not necessarily.  Tracking could be revealing
>> information that the user would not choose to share,
>> whether because it's too much trouble or because of
>> the user's privacy concerns.  And not all purchases
>> are planned or mindful.  Maybe most aren't.
>> 
>> -- 
>> Don Marti                      +1-510-332-1587 (mobile)
>> http://zgp.org/~dmarti/        Alameda, California, USA
>> 
 
> 
> 
> -- 
> Joe Andrieu
> SwitchBook
> 
 
> +1(805)705-8651
>