Predictability and Prediction for a Media-Experimental Cultural Market
Internet users are often influenced by the behavior of others, often because they want to acquire the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inacessible information. In these cases this influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ENSUING social dynamics. These same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicated very early in the process. A media market model that asseses the predictability of outcomes through formal analysis and the usage of insights deriving from this analysis can result into the development of algorithms for predicting market behavior at its early stage. The utility of the predictive algorithms can be illustrated through analysis of data sets of the market.
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Theodor Kolovos
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