Re: [dvd-discuss] Re: Sen. Hollings plans to introduce DMCAsequel: The SSSCA

["Arnold G. Reinhold" <reinhold(at)world.std.com>]

At 7:38 PM -0400 9/9/2001, Robert S. Thau wrote:
>...
>Ummm... Circuit City Divx failed in the marketplace because consumers
>had alternatives --- VHS and no-time-limit DVDs.  But the proposed law
>makes it *illegal* to sell a PC which doesn't "adhere to ... security
>system standards":
>
>    Sec. 101: Prohibition of Certain Devices
>
>      (a) In General -- It is unlawful to manufacture, import, offer to
>      the public, provide or otherwise traffic in any interactive digital
>      device that does not include and utilize certified security
>      technologies that adhere to the security system standards adopted
>      under section 104.
>
>They're not leaving this to the marketplace if they can help it.
>

That's a big "if." The PC market in the U.S. is already close to 
saturation. It will take several years at least for this law to come 
into effect, under the best of circumstances for its proponents: 
specs have to be approved, hardware has to be designed and tested, 
new operating systems have to be released, etc. Then there will be 
court challenges. The open source community, in particular, will have 
a pretty strong case, I think. During this time conventional PCs will 
continue to be sold.  There will be an upgrade market after that and 
the used equipment market will thrive.

By the time this law is effective, everyone who cares will have a 
800MHz+ PC or Mac with full multimedia suite and fast connectivity. 
What new features will get the owners of these machines to scrap them 
in favor of the State Controlled boxes? Even if consumers need the 
later for HDTV, say, they will keep their older PCs.

I expect added expense and consumer mistrust the new rules generate 
will delay consumer acceptance of the "convergence" machines that the 
industry is counting on for the second half of the decade.  Congress 
is planning on selling the traditional NTSC television spectrum, but 
by law this can only happen when HDTV achieves 85% market 
penetration.  And prices will be driven up by the cost of the new 
security equipment and, more importantly, by reduced competition as 
PC manufacture is limited to the few vendors who can jump through all 
the hoops.

Consumers can just say, "no thank you" to new products that limit 
their freedom, cost more and which they don't need. That could be the 
most powerful vote of all.


Arnold Reinhold